The Hop industry Needs To Adapt in 2026
Key Insights from The 2026 American Hop Convention: Charting the Course for a Balanced Future
The 2026 American Hop Convention proved to be an exceptional event, reinforcing our industry's reputation as one of the most organized and data-driven sectors in agriculture. When challenges arise, our industry demonstrates a remarkable ability to focus and adapt. The research presented over the last year provided a wealth of applicable information, particularly for today’s growers.
Advancing Sustainability and Quality in the Field
A major theme of the convention was the cutting-edge research in soil health and organic methods for weed suppression. These advancements are vital for cultivating higher-quality hops while moving towards softer inputs. The growing interest and adoption of these practices is clear: a "fun fact" shared in the Growers Track is that 62.5% of our New York-based growers currently utilize Cover Cropping, with some doing so for up to eight years. While mixed cover crops show better performance than monoculture blends, there is no significant data yet proving an increase in yield based on cover crops alone.
Though yield increases can’t be determined after 1 or 2 years, the quality of hops grown with cover crops incorporated into the growers' SOP has proven to show higher quality hops here in New York, with increased Terpene output as well as the ability for the hops to hang longer for those fruity late-pick IPA brewers love!
We’re also monitoring the promising research of hydro mulching for organic weed control, with hopes that viable equipment options might become available in the future. This is exciting as many of our current growers have already gone herbicide-free in their operations and are utilizing ground disturbance, mechanical, and flame for weed control solutions.
Stability and Inventory: A Balanced Outlook
Updates on the stability of hops are critical, helping us determine which varieties can be held in long-term positions and which cannot. New research confirms that while HSI is the best measure for Alpha Acid stability, it does not reliably track the stability of a hop's Terpenes and Thiols over time.
Findings on hop composition stability reveal notable differences:
Citra®: Exhibits High Stability even after 4 to 5 years stored at or near freezing. Sensory change in pellets is minimal, and there is no significant change in brewing characteristics.
Centennial: Shows Moderate Stability. Sensory changes in pellets are noticeable, leading to a perceptible difference in brewing impact.
Cascade: Has Low Stability. Sensory degradation is consistent, and the brewing impact shifts from fruity and floral to more bitter and resinous.
On a macro level, the global beer and U.S. craft markets are relatively flat, which is a positive sign for a balanced future. While hop stocks remain a concern, and a decrease in domestic acreage is announced for 2026, we are hopeful the market will stabilize within the next two growing seasons. The average yield per acre continues to increase due to newer, more sustainable hop varieties. This trend will likely keep New York acreage flat with little to no increase, especially as the domestic reduction continues.
We are proud that The HOPGUILD maintains great domestic and international partners, growing only on a contract basis. We also note that a slight hop shortage here in New York should be resolved in the coming year.
Merchant and Market Dynamics
The Merchant Panel provided a clear picture of current stock levels and goals:
Alpha Production: We anticipate an increase in alpha production, which highlights why future metrics will likely focus on production volume rather than acreage, as average yields are becoming more consistent around 1,990-2,000 lbs/acre.
Hop Stocks: Although hop stocks have depleted by about 20 million pounds, there remains a 14-month surplus overall. This surplus resulted from production exceeding demand for 8 of the last 9 years. The year 2025 was the first year a depletion was greater than production (83M lbs produced vs. 110M lbs sold). With 100M US pounds roughly needed for context, the industry is adjusting. The long-term goal for inventory is now estimated at 6–9 months of surplus to properly balance the industry.
Inventory Value: Current inventory held by major merchants is valued at approximately $1.2 Billion, equating to about $75 million in annual interest payments.
Global Shifts and Domestic Choices
In the global market, the current production of hops is meeting the exact demand for hectoliters (Hl) of beer produced. Notably:
The non-alcoholic category is growing, potentially reaching 100 million Hl.
Stout beer is a fast-growing category, already at 100 million Hl globally, with American production of Stout up 1.46% or 35,000 Hl.
The World Brewing Alliance is pushing for lower-alcohol beverages to engage newer drinkers and capture market share from spirits.
Domestically, the U.S. craft market saw first indications of a 5% decline in 2025 for craft breweries, with a net decrease of about 2% of total craft breweries (more closings than openings). IPA’s continue to dominate with 50.2% of total OFF-PREMISE sales for craft beer, up 1.4% from 2023–2024.
The USA Hop Statistical Packet revealed that the U.S. harvested 83.1 million pounds of hops in 2025, a 32% decrease from 2021. The average yield per acre in the PNW was 1,996 lbs/acre. The IHGC reported a 4.3% decrease in worldwide production in 2025, with the U.S. now producing 35% of the world's supply (down from 41% in 2021) and Germany now at 40% (up from 37% in 2021). Alpha demand has dropped 12% since 2021 and could fall below 10,000 tons, a level not seen since 2015, resulting in an anticipated surplus of 1,300 tons of alpha in 2025.
The domestic usage of American-grown hops is at its lowest since 2007, meaning we are importing a record amount of international hops. While The HOPGUILD will not slow its importing of these crops, we strongly encourage brewers to consider available Domestic Options, as this is a guaranteed way to reduce costs from the field to the fermenter.
As an industry, the need to adapt and strategize is clear, and The HOPGUILD is committed to navigating these changes alongside our partners for a prosperous future.
